The ZiPS system says the Cubs will win the N.L. Central again in 2018

It’s really way too early to make a projection like this, but here it is anyway.

Baseball analyst Dan Szymborski created a system called “ZiPS” a number of years ago to project future performance. Here’s how it works:

ZiPS uses growth and decline curves based on player type to find trends. It then factors those trends into the past performance of those players to come up with projections.

The system uses statistics from the previous four years for players from ages 24-38, and it weights more recent seasons heavier. For younger or older players, it uses weighted statistics from only the previous three years. The system also factors velocities, injury data and play-by-play data into its equations.

And every year, Szymborski puts out a very early projection for the following season’s standings.

At late Friday, his first 2018 projection was posted. It’s behind a paywall, so I’ll give you some highlights here. First, the caveat:

As is my tradition, I run a “State of the Franchise” projection for all of Major League Baseball at the start of the offseason. This does not mean that these are the official 2018 projections that you’ll see in March, but they are where each team …Read the Rest

Source:: Bleed Cubbie Blue

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