After some input, I dove deeper into this concept.
A few weeks ago, I looked at trying to determine if there was more or less a magic number that meant that if you scored that number of runs you were almost certainly going to win. Here in 2018, that number has been five. If you get to four, you’re fairly certain to win, but if you get to five you are almost definitely going to win. It helps then that the Cubs average scoring just shy of five runs per game while allowing four runs per game. That’s a pretty good recipe for success to be sure.
I left that article and subsequent conversations about it wondering about a few things. First: What is the relative probability based on a given number of runs score? Second: How static have those numbers been through the years? I hypothesized that that number probably raised a bit in the so-called Steroid Era but otherwise has been relative static. But I don’t like to just form a hypothesis so with some input from my brilliant readers and the invaluable Baseball-Reference.com website, I’m going to journey back down this rabbit hole and go a …Read the Rest
Source:: Bleed Cubbie Blue