Bryce Harper Would Add Star Power, Perhaps Not Playoff Wins

When it comes to strategic planning, the questions high-performaning organizations like the Cubs ask are often more important than the answers. For instance, questions like “Wouldn’t Bryce Harper improve the lineup?” and “Who is the favorite to sign him?” just aren’t very strategically helpful.

Assuming the goal is winning another title, it’s far better to ask, “Can Harper significantly improve the Cubs’ playoff-win probability?”

After all, the Cubs won 95 games last year and have averaged nearly 97 over the last four seasons. So generating more regular-season wins isn’t a good rationale for doling out $30 million AAV contracts. Far more important is whether Harper (or any big addition) would improve the offense’s consistency in order to increase the Cubs’ chances of winning more playoff games.

When explaining the Cubs’ hot-and-cold offense, a common refrain has been, “Chili Davis, Chili Davis, Chili Davis.” However, as I’ve noted in the past, a major overlooked puzzle piece remains the lineup’s inability to hit power arms, especially in the playoffs when the preponderance of such pitchers spikes upward.

As evidence, consider that the Cubs’ OPS against power arms went from best in the NL in 2016 …Read the Rest

Source:: Cubs Insider

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